Researchers warn that a 'super El Niño' could cause up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths globally over the next six months.

What it means

Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab (University of Chicago) have projected that the ongoing 'super El Niño' – a particularly strong version of the natural climate pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean – could cause up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027. This is a forecast based on modeling, not a count of actual deaths, and it represents deaths above what would normally occur without the El Niño-driven extreme heat.

Accuracy & sourcesGrounded

The claim is a model-based projection from the Climate Impact Lab, a research group with a track record in climate-economics modeling. It is being reported faithfully by major news outlets such as The Guardian, Reuters, and Al Jazeera, which all cite the lab's estimates. However, as a projection, its accuracy depends on the model's assumptions about heat exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation; it should be treated as a plausible scenario rather than a precise prediction.

How new