Researchers project a strong El Niño could cause around 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally.

What it means

Researchers from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago project that the current 'super El Niño' event will cause approximately 451,000 excess deaths globally from extreme heat between June 2026 and February 2027. The figure represents heat-related deaths above the historical baseline, not total fatalities, and is based on climate modeling combined with mortality data.

Accuracy & sourcesGrounded

The claim originates from a modeling study by the Climate Impact Lab, a reputable research group, reported by Reuters and other major outlets (e.g., Al Jazeera, CBS News). As a projection, it is inherently uncertain but grounded in established methods; the reporting closely follows the primary source, giving moderate-to-high confidence in the claim's provenance.

How new

The story was published on September 23, 2026, reporting on a newly released study about the ongoing 2026 El Niño, making it genuinely new.

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